lt’s a rematch of last year’s champions game as Chus Mateo and Real Madrid battle Georgios Bartzokas and Olympiacos in the Euroleague Final Four. Who comes out on top to progress to Sunday’s title game?
Real Madrid enter the Euroleague Final Four in Berlin as defending champions. Chus Mateo is hungry to claim a 12th crown by Georgios Bartzokas and Olympiacos stand in his way.
Key details
Who: Real Madrid (30-7) vs Olympiacos (25-14)
Where: Uber Arena, Berlin
When: Friday 24 May 21.00 CET/ 20.00 (UK/Ireland)/ 15.00 EST
How they got here
Real Madrid
Regular season: 27-7 (1st)
Playoffs: 3-0 vs Baskonia
Chus Mateo and Los Blancos got off to an electric start, going 16-1 through the first half of the season. Things cooled off somewhat in the second half but their 11-6 record down the stretch was still home court advantage level form.
Any fears that they might cool off in the playoffs were put to bed in short order. Real Madrid swept Baskonia 3-0, the only series to not go the full five games, to book their place in the Euroleague Final Four.
Olympiacos
Regular season: 22-12 (5th)
Playoffs: Beat FC Barcelona 3-2
Consistency was an issue for the Reds through the first half of the Euroleague campaign. When they eventually got it together, they rallied hard and looked like they might snag home court in the postseason.
That didn’t happen but they showed no fear against a star studded FC Barcelona side. The veteran Olympiacos roster worked and grinded to punch their ticket to a third straight Euroleague Final Four.
Key battles
With the Euroleague Final Four, this discussion begins on the benches. Chus Mateo was a midseason replacement for Pablo Laso a couple of years back. Despite having only a couple of months to gel with his players, he led them to the championship game. In his first full season a year ago, he won it all.
Georgios Bartzokas won his lone Euroleague title to date with Olympiacos in London in 2013. Fun fact, that was my first Euroleague Final Four. His second spell with the Reds has seen him cement his legacy with success on all fronts. The only thing that has eluded him in this run is that second Euroleague championship.
The backcourt of Real Madrid is led by Facundo Campazzo, a wizard of a ball handler. Thomas Walkup has a big job in the one on one battle there. Up front, it’s going to be Vincent Poirier, Guerschon Yabusele, and Walter ‘Edy’ Tavares against Moustapha Fall, Nikola Militunov, and Filp Petrusev. That will get meaty.
In between, the play of Kostas Papanikolaou, Alec Peters, and Shaq McKissic for the Reds will be vital against Mario Hezonja, Dzanan Musa, and Sergio Llull for Real.
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Need to know
Chus Mateo is hungry for this. At the normally sedate pre event press conference he was clear. Real Madrid are not defending anything. The 11th title last year is theirs. Now he wants a 12th. There is a fire and focus in that man’s face that can’t be ignored.
Rudy Fernandez is on his last dance with Los Blancos. Success at his last ever Euroleague Final Four would be a perfect cap to a stellar career. With several other Real players becoming free agents this offseason, there might well be a few others looking to sign off in style.
Olympiacos has never made it to three consecutive Euroleague Final Fours. Winning any title is special. Winning this one, after losing two stars in Sasha Vezenkov and Kostas Sloukas last summer, really would be something special for Georgios Bartzokas.
Naturally, this being a rematch can’t be ignored. A Sergio Llull score won the final for Real over a favoured Oly a year ago. Now, Los Blancos are favourites and Olympiacos want to spoil the party.
What the bookies think
Real Madrid are clear favourites in the sportsbooks with Chus Mateo’s side priced at 1/2 in this Euroleague Final Four battle. Olympiacos by contrast are available at 13/8 on most markets, indicating they are clear underdogs with punters.
The point spread favours Real Madrid by -4.5 points. That feels like the right type of margin to put here considering the straight up odds. The total points is 156.5, a point lower than the other semi-final. That’s not a lot of difference but it is notable.
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What we think
They called it Bartzokas Ball but, in truth, what Olympiacos do is adapt to wherever they can hide their weaknesses the most and lean on their strengths. That will mean a lot is asked of Thomas Walkup on the shooting side of things. That doesn’t mean he has to score heavily, just enough to keep Real’s defending honest.
Chus Mateo and Real Madrid know they have strength in depth and can tire out pretty much any opponent. That includes their opponents in this Euroleague Final Four battle. That being said, it’s going to be hard for them to totally dominate the tempo.
The prediction
The real tough part here for me is the total. It is in the interests of Olympiacos to not let this become a track meet. It does however suit Real Madrid to play a high scoring game. While I don’t think Chus Mateo and Los Blancos will have it all their own way, I feel they will do enough to hit the over.
As for the more important matter. Georgios Bartzokas has a plan and it’s going to be a good one. I just don’t think it succeeds this time. It’s going to be tight but Real Madrid should have enough to get over the line and cover.
Pick: Real Madrid -4.5 and OVER 156.5 points
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