lt’s a return to the Euroleague Final Four for Panathinaikos while Fenerbahce face an old foe in Ergin Ataman. Who emerges on Friday to proceed to Sunday’s title game?
The first of the Euroleague Final Four match-ups sees Sarunas Jasikevicius and Fenerbahce take on Ergin Ataman’s Panathinaikos. There’s lots of respect but no love lost here. Who emerges to book their place in the title game?
Key details
Who: Panathinaikos (26-13) vs Fenerbahce (23-16)
Where: Uber Arena, Berlin
When: Friday 24 May 18.00 CET/ 17.00 (UK/Ireland)/ 12.00 EST
How they got here
Panathinaikos
Regular season: 23-11 (2nd)
Playoffs: 3-2 vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ergin Ataman’s Greens took a few weeks to settle before hitting their stride in December. With a radically overhauled roster, some time to gel was needed. Once they did, PAO raced into a home court position in the playoffs before eventually securing home court in the playoffs.
That series with Maccabi Tel Aviv went the full five games. A tremendous display by Kendrick Nunn in Game 5 proved decisive as they ended a 12 year wait to reach the Euroleague Final Four.
Fenerbahce
Regular season: 20-14 (6th)
Playoffs: Beat AS Monaco 3-2
In a tale not too different from their opponents, Fenerbahce had a rough front half of the campaign. The arrival of Sarunas Jasikevicius as head coach changed things radically. The turnaround was enough to get the last guaranteed playoff spot in the postseason, avoiding the play-ins.
In the playoffs, Fener appeared to have thrown away their opportunity in Game 4 at home to AS Monaco. A superb display by Nick Calathes however got them over the line in overtime. In the process, they became the first ever road team to win Game 5 of a playoff series.
Key battles
In news that won’t surprise any observers of past Euroleague Final Fours, the battle begins on the benches. Ergin Ataman is aiming to win his third Euroleague championship, and it would also be his third in four seasons. While with a different squad, having won the prior two with Anadolu Efes, he’s got as many titles as head coach (2) as all the others here combined (1 each for Chus Mateo and Georgious Bartzokas).
Standing just across from him will be Sarunas Jasikevicius. Having won the Euroleague four times with three teams as a player, including once with Panathinaikos, he is seeking his first as a head coach. Saras has been here before with Zalgiris Kaunas and FC Barcelona. Now, he aims to get over the big hump.
The back courts in both teams bear plenty of attention. Nick Calathes may be the most important man on the floor. His ball security will be vital for Fenerbahce. Across from him will be Kostas Sloukas and, perhaps more dangerous in the battle, Nunn. The American has shown hunger for steals in recent outings and that could be a big challenge for Fener.
Mathias Lessort will be an obvious weapon up front for Panathinaikos but don’t expect a direct fight there. Nigel Hayes Davis and Johnathan Motley may take a tandem approach to him instead. Hayes Davis is a proven scorer at this level, which makes him also worth a lot of attention.
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Need to know
Panathinaikos may have waited a while to get back here but they are steeped in Euroleague history. The Greens have won 6 titles and are aiming for lucky number 7 in Berlin under Ergin Ataman.
Despite having just a single Euroleague crown, Fenerbahce have far more recent experience at the final weekend of the competition. Starting with their first Final Four in 2015, Fener had a run of 5 straight trips to the big show. Since the pandemic shortened 2019/2020 season however they haven’t been back, until now.
In addition to the coaching achievements, Kostas Sloukas will be suiting up in his 12th different Final Four. He has previously appeared for Olympiacos and Fenerbahce at the final stages.
There’s also a rivalry element in this for Fenerbahce fans that isn’t directly about Panathinaikos. In the Turkish Super League, Ergin Ataman was their biggest rival for over a decade. Between Besiktas, Galatasaray, and Anadolu Efes, he was a constant thorn in their side.
Metecan Birsen is also in position to make history this weekend. His full name is James Metecan Birsen, as he’s half-Irish. If he takes the floor here, he’ll be the first Irishman to step on the court in the Euroleague Final Four since the great Pat Burke. That’s not as need to know but I’m Irish so I am going to take liberties while I can.
What the bookies think
The first match-up of the Euroleague Final Four is a tight one according to the sportsbooks. Ergin Ataman’s Panathinaikos at 5/6 while Fenerbahce are 11/10. The spread is, naturally, quite narrow as well. The best value is Panathinaikos at 10/11 at -1.5, which is essentially no gain from the straight-up option.
The total points of 157.5 is quite tempting in both directions. On the one hand, you’ve got two sides that can score in bunches. On the other hand, both are able to have grind it out scraps of games.
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What we think
While a razzle dazzle high scoring game is unlikely, that’s not the Euroleague Final Four’s way, this won’t be an absolute low scoring game either. I expect both sides to find ways to score in bunches here. It likely won’t go blow for blow in the truest sense until the second half.
The two big questions for me are what adjustments will Sarunas Jasikevicius make when Nick Calathes sits for Fenerbahce and what Ergin Ataman will do when Mathias Lessort does the same for Panathinaikos.
The prediction
This one screams of a closer game than the final score implies. The question will really be who has more late and who has more work left to do? Looking at that, much as this Fenerbahce team is enticing, I just can’t look past the way Ergin Ataman manages a tight rotation. For me, that should be enough for Panathinaikos to pull away in the closing minutes and book a place in the Euroleague title game.
Pick: Panathinaikos at 5/6 and OVER 157.5 points.
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