The Dallas Mavericks megastar starts the NBA season, yet again, as favourite to be named MVP. Individual accolades are nice but, Emmet Ryan writes, after the Dallas Mavericks made the NBA finals last June there’s a bigger prize. With the Mavs more stacked than at any time in Luka Doncic’s career, he may have to priortise matters this campaign
This is new territory for Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. That comes in terms of the on court situation, the potential ceiling, and the health of the Slovenian superstar. How the Mavs manage all of these elements, even the good ones, will prove telling in terms of how their season turns out.
An historic amount of rest
Luka Doncic’s workload being substantial isn’t exactly a new area for this site to cover. Pretty much throughout his time in the NBA, it’s been a point of focus. There’s reason to believe that this season could prove radically different to every one prior to now for the Dallas Mavericks superstar.
Luka’s last game of competitive basketball before pre-season was on 6 July, in Slovenia’s Olympic qualifying loss to Greece. It was all the way back in 2019 when Luka last had a summer off to that extent. For context, here’s his finishing dates for each of the previous four summers.
2020 – 23 August (playoff loss to the Clippers)
2021 – 7 August (Olympic bronze medal loss to Australia)
2022 – 14 September (EuroBasket quarter final loss to Poland)
2023 – 9 September (FIBA World Cup 7th place game).
The length of the rest is a big start but it’s what he was resting from that’s just as important. Slovenia ran everything through Luka Doncic in each of those last three tournaments. His minutes per game and overall usage were intense. Each time, this led into NBA seasons where the Mavs leaned on him heavily.
More time to adapt
The three biggest moves made by the Mavs to help Luka Doncic out, since his arrival, seem pretty clear cut. Kristaps Porzingis arrived in-season in 2019, then promptly sat until the start of the following season due to injury rehab. He had his usual string of injury issues and eventually it was clear that he wasn’t the answer.
So, the Dallas Mavericks hit the market again. This time it was the big move to land Kyrie Irving. He, again, arrived in-season. It’s fair to say that half-season for the Mavs is best forgotten. Come the next season, as in the most recent campaign, and the chemistry was much better. It helps when Irving seems to be the easiest player alive for other basketball players to work with on the court.
The third came this off-season. Klay Thompson may not be the old him but he’s still a problem. Luka Doncic isn’t getting Klay in-season. He’s not getting him with injury issues to wait out. He’s also not having to get to know a new piece of the puzzle while recovering from national team duty. This is different and that’s a big positive for the Mavs.
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So there’s a choice to be made
This is the fourth straight season where, at least according to a majority of sportsbooks, Luka Doncic is favourite to win NBA MVP. It’s also probably his best chance of all of those campaigns to win it. Doncic will have more shooting support around him. Last season’s run to the NBA Finals will surely count towards the narrative. Aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, all of the other top contenders already have the trophy. There will be a willingness amongst voters to lean towards Luka.
There’s just the small matter of what is required to win MVP. The Dallas Mavericks have used him as a workhorse as much as a thoroughbred these past few years. Doing one is tough on the body. Doing both is asking for reduced production when the games really matter.
The Mavs have a rare opportunity to manage the minutes of Luka Doncic. Neither they nor the Slovenia national team have enjoyed that luxury this decade. Ensuring Luka is in the best possible condition for the post-season simply has to be the priority. The playoffs in the Western Conference promise to be furious this year. Last season was like watching championship heavyweights knock lumps out of each other. There’s no reason to believe this will be any different.
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Does it have to cost him the MVP?
There is a route to the NBA MVP award for Luka Doncic without wrecking himself. It’s just a lot tougher. That’s to say tougher to win, still a lot easier on his body. Realistically, Nikola Jokic would need an unthinkable season to overcome voter fatigue this season. Joel Embiid won’t do back to backs. That means he likely won’t hit the minimum game threshold. That least SGA, a serious contender, and Giannis Antetokoumpo, a two time winner with motivation for a third. It would oddly come down to wins, or rather how many more wins the Mavs get, than anything else. A Luka Doncic with lower minutes but better per 40 numbers coupled with a better win-loss record for the Mavs would present an appealing case.
It just really might involve too much thinking. The primary purpose of the Mavs bringing in Klay is to clear that final hurdle. The NBA MVP also winning the NBA championship in the same season is a rarity these days. Lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy is the clear and obvious goal. When that’s the decision to be made, there is no decision to be made. The Dallas Mavericks should focus on keeping Luka Doncic healthy and in the best position to win it all.
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