Partizan remain alive in the race for the Euroleague Basketball postseason. If they get there, for good or bad, Aleksa Avramovic will have a big role to play
He is at times the most exciting and frustrating players in Euroleague Basketball. With Aleksa Avramovic you’ve got to accept that rough edges come with brilliance. At his best, he might well be the key to keeping Partizan’s hopes this season alive.
Two game changing plays
Watching Partizan play away to Alba Berlin on Thursday night, it was mostly what you’d expect. Alba sit at the bottom of the Euroleague Basketball table, to the delight of hardly anyone. Partizan needed a win to ensure they remained on course to challenge for the play-ins. The Belgrade side won but two moments from Aleksa Avramovic broke the game open.
In the second quarter there was a steal and score. This moment of magic looked like it came directly from the scouting notebook. Avramovic had read how Alba were going to move the ball and he pounced. There was clean air for him to race down the court and dunk. On the next possession, he made another steal and that quickly led to another Partizan score. What had been a processional grind for a win from Partizan had been broken open. Avramovic gave them the air required to remain comfortable, by and large, for the remainder.
Here’s the thing
The problem is that this was not a particularly good performance. The Aleksa Avramovic that made those two plays was not the one that was on the floor for the rest of the night. The harrying was there, we’ll get back to that, but the efficiency wasn’t. A poor turnover on his part didn’t help either.
Up and down performances have been a recurring thing for Avramovic. At least when the stakes drop. While a lot was on the line for Partizan in this game, namely their future this season in Euroleague Basketball, it didn’t feel like that for the most part. This was evident in how Avramovic’s mind seemed to wander at times.
Controlling his performance is a challenge for Avramovic. The best indicator is how volatile his Performance Index Rating has been this season. His average of 8.9 is fine. Not great, not bad. It’s fine. The problem is that it goes everywhere. The absolute nadir against Olympiacos, of -5, feels an outlier because of how little he played.
More it’s a case of the highs and lows. There have been gems against Anadolu Efes and Barcelona. The former was preceded by a dud against Bayern and the latter was followed with another against Baskonia.
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A defender that needs to score
A guard that can score is not a bad thing. It is objectively good. The problem for Aleksa Avramovic, at least this Euroleague Basketball season, is that his top tier defensive displays seemed to always come in high scoring performances.
His performances at the FIBA World Cup last September felt like a coming out party for Avramovic. He was locked in routinely and should have made the team of the tournament. Avramovic was by far the best defender and had some jaw dropping displays.
Partizan fans haven’t seen that hoped for step forward, at least not yet. Time is the one thing Avramovic can’t control but he is quite the man for sensing opportunity. Partizan may yet control their destiny in Euroleague Basketball. If there’s a chance and a matter of necessity, then the potential impact of Avramovic is substantial.
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Now for the nerdy bit
A quick look at Aleksa Avramovic’s Euroleague Basketball stats for the past two seasons provides a quick story. His growth in confidence has led to ball security issues, with turnovers up substantially on a per game basis. The issue isn’t as bad as it first looks. On a minute per minute basis, they have actually dropped slightly. The difference is negligible but one that probably gets exacerbated in the eye test because we are seeing far more of him on the floor this season.
What should have nerds, and Partizan fans, lapping their tongues is his ability to draw fouls while being called less often. Last season he committed a foul every 6.5 minutes of play, that has improved greatly to more than 10.5 minutes for every foul committed. Conversely, he only drew a foul once every 11.5 minutes last season. Now, he’s drawing one foul in less than 10 minutes of play.
Those may be nerdy numbers but they’re useful ones. The less you foul, the more time you can spend on the floor. The more you get fouled, the more time those fouling you stay off the floor. In simple terms, Avramovic is playing smarter this season both in possession and while defending.
Two wild men from Cacak
It’s no news to Partizan fans that Aleksa Avramovic and Zeljko Obradovic, the team’s head coach, share a home town. Cacak has a population of just 70,000 yet has an oversized impact on the history of sport in Serbia. While hoop heads will look at its litany of basketball stars, in truth the impact extends far wider.
For Avramovic and Obradovic, being a competitor is the easy part. The latter is better tuned at knowing when to strike. Avramovic sometimes needs that touch more direction. That’s part of the charm of watching him. You never know exactly when you’ll see peak Aleksa but, when you do, you know he has all the answers.
The play-ins are in play for Partizan. There’s every reason to believe that Aleksa Avramovic is going to be locked in. He’s just going to cause some heart problems for those who want him to succeed the most along the way.
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