The time for talk is almost over. The Euroleague Final Four tips off in Abu Dhabi on Friday as Panathinaikos, the defending champions, take on an impressive Fenerbahce side. Emmet Ryan breaks down the first semi-final and makes his pick to progress.
The heat in Abu Dhabi is roasting. Even in the air-conditioned confines of the Etihad Arena, we’re expecting a fiery one in the first semi-final of the Euroleague Final Four. It’s Panathinaikos vs Fenerbahce for a shot at the title.
Key tactical battles
There’s an obvious offensive might vs stout defensive prowess fight ahead. Kendrick Nunn leads a Panathinaikos side with plenty of firepower. While Fenerbahce don’t lack scorers, they will surely look to develop an advantage on the defensive side of the affair. It’s where they’re most suited to force the tempo.
This naturally shines a light on guard play. What can Kostas Sloukas, Jerian Grant and co. do to make things tick for Nunn at the Euroleague Final Four? Likewise how will Marko Guduric and Wade Baldwin counter them beyond simply seeking to outscore the Greens?
The biggest questions surround the front court. We know what Fenerbahce have. With Nigel Hayes Davis offering bounce alongside the brawn of Bonzie Colson and Nicolo Melli, they’re dynamic on the interior. PAO of course bring Mathias Lessort whose health is the biggest question mark in Abu Dhabi. Omer Yurtseven will be leaned on to deliver big in this one.
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The story so far
We’ve seen plenty from Ergin Ataman with Panathinaikos and Sarunas Jasikevicius of Fenerbahce to know neither will be overawed. The Greens edged Fener in both of their regular season meetings. The Euroleague Final Four is a different animal entirely.
Psychologically, there’s a lot to read into the status of Panathinaikos as defending champions. They were forced to the brink by Anadolu Efes in their playoff series. On the one hand, it showed their flaws. On the other, it proved this is a battle-tested team that can find a way to win.
Fenerbahce by contrast have been the model of consistency this season. There was the odd slip up here and there. Still, when it came to the playoff series they were all business. That’s an enormous edge leading into this semi-final. That said, have they come to Abu Dhabi too polished? Would they be better off having been in more dogfights?
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Betting Odds & Context
Most sportsbooks have Panathinaikos as the slightest of favourites. The Greens are pegged at around 71/100 (1.71) on average across the board. That’s favoured but far from a lock. Similarly, Fenerbahce are merely nominal underdogs at 119/100 (2.19) on average across the board.
The Greens lead the competition in offensive efficiency while Fener can claim a top three defence alongside the extra rest.
Both coaches have been following the standard script for the Euroleague Final Four ahead of this weekend in Abu Dhabi. Ataman and Jasikevicius might as well have traded notes given their comments on how they need to be better as coaches and how they worry about the form of their sides.
What do we think
Everything about this points to it being relatively low scoring. A winning score under 80 points wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. There’s always a bit of edginess in the Euroleague Final Four. That’s often most visible in the first semi-final.
Despite losing both their regular season fixtures to Panathinaikos, it’s hard to ignore that Fenerbahce are the more rested side coming to Abu Dhabi. Throw in the front court questions for the Greens, especially with Mathias Lessort’s health, and it’s quite promising for the Yellows.
Of course, there’s that pinch in the back of my neck. Do I really want to bet against Ergin Ataman and this Panathinaikos roster? Given all we’ve seen from them when faced with adversity before? It’s not an easy ask. Right, let’s get to it.
Fearless prediction:Fenerbahce
Thinking so much about why Panathinaikos can win in spite of everything, ignores why Fenerbahce can win because of who they are. Protagonists change. The Turkish club is ready to step forward at the Euroleague Final Four in Abu Dhabi.
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