BallinEurope’s 2010 FIBA World Championship power rankings 5.0

August 26, 2010

Right. It’s time for the final edition – pending Nenad Krstic’s prospective suspension by FIBA – of BallinEurope’s 2010 FIBA World Championship power rankings. Now that Team USA has had it out with Spain and Greece, we can see the picture a little more clearly heading into the tournament tipping off Saturday. There’s a clear upper tier of USA, Spain, Greece and Argentina who can start thinking “podium” now; Serbia might also be included, again pending the Krstic decision.

But while the cream again rises to the top, question marks, dark horses and possible upsets well remain. Who doesn’t like how Germany’s rounding into shape? Or the Whole-Greater-Than-Sum-Of-Parts aspect to Team Lithuania? Or (for those paying attention) the possibilities of Lebanon…?

Without further ado, here’s BiE’s measurement of the trends going into the weekend. Enjoy (well, except for you Canada fans)!

1. (↑) USA. U-S-A! U-S-A! But seriously, the Red-White-and-Blues’ fans have got to be loving the performance of their guys last night against Greece, dominating all facets of the game – especially in the halfcourt, where BiE reckoned they’d be especially vulnerable. Good win for the U.S. Even if Hellas was coming without Ioannis Bourousis and Sofoklis Schortsanitis. Even if Kostas Tsartsaris exposed Lamar Odom and the rest as inadequate to play underneath against the bigger teams. Even if BiE still believes Spain will give them game in the semi-finals … is there a position 1½?

2. (↓) Spain. Showing themselves to be exactly two points worse than Team USA (as it stands) drops Team Espana to no. 2 for the first time in the ‘Rankings.

3. (↔) Greece. Yes, BiE knows Team Greece wasn’t any near full strength against Team USA, but still, should the Hellenes have been blown out *that* badly? And isn’t anyone concerned about the last-minute injury report on Sofoklis?

4. (↔) Argentina. No Manu, no problem for these guys, who spent the week going 3-0 in the Efes Pilsen World Cup and capped the tourney by defeating Turkey, ostensibly a top six or seven team in the FIBA Worlds, 93-89 in overtime.

In the warmups, Carlos Delfino has established himself as the alpha dog in lieu of Ginobili, contributing a huge 30 points in the OT win against Turkey. Luis Scola has been awesome as well and will be a threat to go double-double against nearly any team Argentina faces in this thing. Argentina establishes itself as the fourth team in the upper tier and could really be considered an odds-on favorite to meet Spain/USA in the championship. Ready for these guys, Greece…?

5. (↔) Serbia. Now that the warmup games are done, Team Serbia can really start worrying – no, not about the competition in Turkey necessarily, but rather in the letter of the law.

Whereas directly following the Greece-Serbia brawl, former FIBA Europe head George Vassilakopoulos was positively blasé about any players receiving suspensions during 2010 FIBA World Championship games, chair-hurling Nenad Krstic has puzzlingly announced publicly that he’s concerned about the possibility of penalties. The best news for Serbia on Krstic thus far is FIBA’s inaction: Despite announcing they’d decide on suspensions for any players by Wednesday, no word came from the organization yesterday.

Meanwhile, coach Dusan Ivkovic has trimmed the roster to 13 (12 if you’re not including Krstic): Krstic, Milenko Tepic, Nemanja Bjelica, Novica Velickovic, Kosta Perovic, Milos Teodosic, Ivan Paunic, Stefan Markovic, Dusko Savanovic, Miroslav Raduljica, Marko Keselj, Milan Macvan and Aleksandar Rasic.

6. (↔) How can Team Lithuania have announced the cut of 2008 stud Mindaugas Lukauskis, yet its fans still remain high on this team’s chances? (BiE means aside from the fact that they’re Lithuanians.) Well, take a look at the squad: Martynas Gecevicius, Martynas Pocius, Simas Jasaitis, Mantas Kalnietis, Tomas Delininkaitis, Renaldas Seibutis, Jonas Maciulis, Linas Kleiza, Paulius Jankunas, Tadas Klimavicius, Robertas Javtokas and Martynas Andriuskevicius.

And this is a B Team? Anyone looking ahead to Eurobasket 2011 is terrified, as Lithuania reckons to bring everybody who is somebody in Lithuanian basketball to that tournament hosted in the home country. In this tournament, it’ll take a couple of upsets to reach the podium, but these guys have got to be considered contenders.

7. (↑) . Could the extremely young, Nowitzki-less Germany end up the surprise of this entire tournament? “German confidence soars after two wins over Puerto Rico” reads the FIBA news headline after the pair of nice victories this week and rightfully so. Right now, Germany is looking like one of the more impressive “wild card” additions in this tournament (the other wild cards were Russia, Lithuania and Lebanon) as Dirk Bauermann modestly sets his sights: “I maintain that [an appearance] in the second round would be a great success.”

Advancing out of Group A (which also contains Angola, Argentina, Australia, Jordan, and Serbia) now seems likely and what’s more, Germany is going in fearless. “The chemistry is right,” said Tim Ohlbrecht. “I can hardly wait for the game against Argentina.”

8. (↓) Brazil. The tournament hasn’t begun yet and BiE’s already set to label Brazil the biggest disappointment in the 2010 FIBA Worlds. Now that Nene’s out, this team is still seeing fit to lose to the likes of Australia – but hey, at least they got past Cote d’Ivoire, eh?

9. (↑) Turkey. Another friendly tournament – the Efes Pilsen Cup – hosted, another friendly tournament lost. Okay, so Turkey beat up on Lebanon and Canada, but lost to Argentina. These guys are still getting benefit of the doubt, but BiE can’t help thinking the hometown fans are in for some disappointment…

10. (↓) Croatia is performing admirably well given their injuries and no-shows, but the loss to Russia after taking out New Zealand in the Zadar tournament had to be a bit of a slap in the face…

11. (↔) Slovenia. Memi Becirovic has named his final team and it includes eight who played on the shocking fourth-place 2009 Eurobasket team: Goran “The Dragon” Dragic, Uros Slokar, Jaka Lakovic, Sam Udrih, Bostjan Nachbar, Goran Jagodnik, Jaka Klobucar and Primoz Brezec. A nice plus is Sani Becirovic, and the roster is filled out by Hasan Rizvic, Miha Zupan and Gasper Vidmar.

12. (↑) Australia. Hark! What is that approaching from the South Hemisphere? Why, it’s Australia, who, despite the lack of Andrew Bogut, have put together some positively nasty defensive schemes to enjoy back-to-back wins over Brazil and France earlier this week in the Villeurbanne International Tournament. (They also smoked Cote d’Ivoire, 80-59, to cap things off.)

The wins gave Oz an 8-1 record in pre-Worlds friendlies, with the sole loss coming to Slovenia. How important has the game three between Germany and Australia become? And how interesting might that match be, after all?

13. (↑) Russia. Could these guys be back after pummeling fellow FIBA contenders Jordan and New Zealand, while taking care of Croatia in the finals of the Zadar tournament? Clearly, Team Russia will advance out of Group C (which also contains Greece, Puerto Rico, Ivory Coast, China and Turkey), but is a second-place finish back in the picture?

14. (↓) Puerto Rico. Two consecutive losses to Germany? Maybe those walk-offs did hurt after all…

15. (↓) Lebanon. The underdogs are getting props here for their optimism. While beating Canada in the final game of the Efes Pilsen Cup, Lebanon head coach Tab Baldwin seemed to enjoy the seven-point loss to Argentina more: “I am very happy with my team’s performance because Argentina is a very difficult side, number one in the FIBA rankings. Fabricio Oberto and Luis Scola are one of the best interior duos, while Delfino and [Andres] Nocioni are very good on the perimeter. We came close and that leaves us happy.”

Assuming Spain wins and Lithuania finishes second in Group D, the race for third place has suddenly become a dogfight between Canada, France, New Zealand and Lebanon – this enthusiastic fanbase may soon have much much more to cheer about.

16. (↓) It’s Canada, who’s now “limping in” to the tournament, or France, who can’t beat anybody with or without Alexis Ajinca, it seems; take your pick.

Aug 26, 2010ballineurope

This post was published on August 26, 2010

Comments: 27

milaz
14 years ago
Greece was really bad last night, however… they played their worst game I’ve seen in a long time and were behind by only 10-12, after half time they completely gave up and the difference grew.

I agree with these power rankings but I’d still think that in a one game scenario – semi-final or final – Spain, Greece and Argentina can and will beat this US team, not because they are not good, but because they lack the experience of other teams…. It is a long tournament, so we’ll see how everyone clicks….
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Seb
14 years ago
As a french fan, I disagree with this power-rankings. How You can put Lebanon ahead of France! That’s crazy… Last summer, France lost only one game at Eurobasket in Poland… and it was a very tough (and ugly) one, against Spain. France won over Greece, Turkey, Russia and Germany one year ago !

How can you put Germany at 7 while they won only one game at Euro 09 ! They lost against Macedonia, Latvia, Croatia and Russia during the first round…
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ck
14 years ago
@seb They did it like this because it should be a current ranking, not a ranking of the last year. And you have to admit that france is out of shape this summer.
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Seb
14 years ago
@ck
you are right, that is a current ranking, but Euro was the last competition, so that’s more important than friendly games. And in those games, France was very close to Brazil and Australia. So I hope they will overpass this power rankings.
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Steeve
14 years ago
@Seb

Given their curent level, France will be last in their group, they didn’t win any real game in their preparation (Only beated Cote d’Ivoire).

So this Ranking is very relevant!!You’ll end up last as in the football world Cup;)!!Let’s hope that at least the players will be training before their games!!
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FIBA Expert
14 years ago
Poor predictions. It will be,

1. Greece
2. Spain
3. USA
4. Serbia

If you would actually analyze the teams and coaches and systems and match ups, and not useless practice sessions like friendly games, then that is the proper ranking and how it should finish. Of course the suspensions might hurt Greece against Puerto Rico. In that case the US won’t medal because Greece will beat them at the quarterfinals.
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- Justin
  14 years ago
  “In that case the US won’t medal because Greece will beat them at the quarterfinals.”
  
  You need to study the bracket again, Mr. Expert. They can only meet in the final, unless one of them loses their group.
  
  Good rankings overall, good thoughts. I think Serbia will beat Argentina, however, especially now that Nocioni has been called home by the 76ers.
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Freaknick
14 years ago
“They gave up and the difference grew.” Well at least you know they’ve got that competitive spirit, right?

I love how people see rolling over as a positive.
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Phil
14 years ago
Enough about Greece beating Team USA. Please look at more than the ’06 game in which the Greeks shot absolutely lights-out and USA sucked against the pick and roll. If you look historically, it is starting to look like a major fluke.

Take the ’08 Olympic game (OMG just preliminaries .. whatever) … yes those are all different Team USA guys, but Team USA was much better prepared defensively. Exhibition or not (remember USA played it as exhibition also … all 12 guys played in the first quarter), Team USA’s defense was effective again yesterday.

Yes, Greece is good and yes IF Team USA takes them lightly, they can lose, but I think the days of Team USA playing games as if they were pick-up games are over. As long as they stay focused, I think Team USA’s only worry is Spain. Will they lead every game after the first quarter? Nah. Will they be up 20 points at halftime every game? Nope. But they will wear these teams down. Yes, the individual talents are not as big as ’08, but with just a handful of exhibition games under their belts, USA is playing more like a real team than even the ’08 team did … probably easier for this group to do so since the entire rotation isn’t made up of THE MAN on NBA teams.
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- Apollo
  14 years ago
  USA team will get annihilated by the Greek big men if they meet at the tournament. I’m not sure if you have been following basketball very long.
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Phil
14 years ago
Some history for everyone … since Greece scored 101 points in the semifinals at ’06 Worlds (by the way, Team USA also gave up 90+ points three times earlier in that tournament .. their defense was NOT anywhere nearly as good as it is now), Team USA has given up 90 points or more in only one game that was not against Spain (127-100 win over Mexico at FIBA Tournament of the Americas in ’07).

Moreover, Team USA has only given up 80+ points to teams other than Spain six times since FIBA Worlds in ’06 and they cracked 100 points on offense in every one of those games (the aforementioned Mexico game, 118-81 over Argentina in FIBA Tournament of the Americas gold medal game, 114-82 ’08 exhibition win over Turkey, 120-84 ’08 exhibition win over Lithuania, 116-85 ’08 Olympic win over Australia, and 101-81 Olympic semifinal win over Argentina.

Finally, the 77-61 exhibition win over Lithuania last Saturday is the only time since Colangelo/Coach K took over that Team USA has been held under 80 and that was with Team USA playing about the worst first quarter imaginable from an offensive standpoint.

Looking at it objectively, the evidence would point to Spain as being the only real threat to a FOCUSED AND PREPARED Team USA. No one else has been able to keep them off the scoreboard since Colangelo/Coach K took over and no one else has ben able to put up enough points to hang with them since the coaches focused more on defense following the loss to Greece in ’06.
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- Apollo
  14 years ago
  I think you are are greatly overestimating the level of the current US team.
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pipo
14 years ago
@Seb

Unfortunately, without Parker and Noah I would be really surprised if France went well. I actually think France will qualify, but that’s it. Also, France beat Greece because the winner of that game would have to face Spain.

@Phil

I was impressed with the US team, but I do agree that it was the worst Greek performance since the final of 2006. It’s very improbable that we’ll play as badly again. USA is definitely top favorites, but as others have said, lack of experience might be a factor – we’ll see.
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Seb
14 years ago
@pipo
Parker and Noah were not in the team who finished 5th in 2006 in japan
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milaz
14 years ago
@Freaknick: “I love how people see rolling over as a positive.”

How did I say it was positive? Maybe you’re reading more into what I said… it’s a warmup game… some players did not even suit up…. You Americans still don’t get the concept of a 2-week international tournament, do you? You played a depleted Greek team (without its number 1 and number 2 centers) and you think the way you played was good or encouraging?

@Phil “Looking at it objectively, the evidence would point to Spain as being the only real threat to a FOCUSED AND PREPARED Team USA.”

Why do we have to accept that the US is the top team when “focused and prepared”, but when we say that about other teams it does not matter… I’ve watched Greece live in 2 games in this “warmup” period and the game against the US on TV – they were NOT focused in that last game…. so all these “if” and “buts” and taking historical data to prove some sort of point… the only history that matters is the US has not won this tournament since 1994…. They’ve lost to many teams, not only Greece, when they had their “A-teams” and their “B-teams”… it’s one game that makes or breaks you in a 2 -week tournament, there is no adjusting, no long regular season, no playoffs… this is it… one “bad” day, one game when you are not focused matters… the exhibition game does NOT – it’s not part of the tournament… it was one game to prepare for it… let’s watch the actual tournament play out…. and these are power rankings…. I merely commented on my team…. I am glad the powerful slap Greece gave the US in 2006 has helped them wake up, but that was only the loudest, Lithuania, Argentina, and others have defeated them in international tournaments before… Nice to see though, that despite you defensive stance and all the history you realise that the US is not unbeatable…

From what I have seen, this US team has to exert itself to win gold and to beat teams like Argentina, Spain and Greece, (even Serbia, Lithuania can cause them problems) when both teams are focused and whatever else you ‘d like to add here….. they lack two things – centers and experience…. and both will cost them….
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milaz
14 years ago
You all need to realize that an international tournament is very different from your domestic league etc… otherwise we could just give the world cup to Brazil every 4 years and to the US in basketball and not have them…. those are in theory the best teams…. thankfully we get to watch some interesting games and some great players, different styles and results that are not always “expected” … history and stats (especially in tournaments like these) are for commentators to fill up the down time of a game….
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Phil
14 years ago
I am well aware of the “on any given day factor.” My main point is that Greece is no more or less a threat than say an Argentina or Serbia would be, IMHO. Too much is being made of one game four years ago during a tournament where USA’s defense was nothing like it is now. Spain to me is in other class in relation to Team USA. (Obviously that doesn’t mean Spain is unbeatable either). Spain is the one team that I think can beat Team USA with Team USA playing a great game on both ends of the court.

Also, I think at this point you can put away ANY GAME prior to 2006 when it comes to the U.S. The culture of the program has changed dramatically. The loss to Greece in ’06 is USA’s only loss since Colangelo and Coach K took over the program and it came a) during the first summer and b) with Team USA – all tournament long – clearly not playing the kind of defense they have since. Now the players shouldn’t put away those games, lest they fall into the lazy attitude the program used to have, but if you’re trying to analyze this tournament, looking at games from 2002 and 2004 is meaningless. USA Basketball has changed dramatically since then.
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- Apollo
  14 years ago
  Spain is a better team than Greece. Spain is also a better team than USA. USA MIGHT be a better team than Greece, but USA has to worry about Greece, even more than Spain because Greece’s big men will destroy the US front line. The US needs to worry about being able to beat a team like Serbia in the bronze medal match.
  
  Serbia is very, big, very long, very physical, very good defensively, and they are very athletic. Much more athletic for example than Spain that Phil is talking up so much. If I was the US I would be worried about just being able to beat Serbia in the bronze medal game, much less thinking about beating Spain or Greece.
  
  From a lot of comments from American fans and even American media, it is clear that they don;t understand that other teams were probably giving like 50% during those friendly games. Even when some of their own international basketball commentators tried to explain that to them, they called them “traitors” and “liars”. Americans are far behind in understanding how to plan and prepare for these tournaments, yet they seem to think they are far head in that. Strange to say the least.
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Phil
14 years ago
“If I was the US I would be worried about just being able to beat Serbia in the bronze medal game, much less thinking about beating Spain or Greece.”

I’m sorry, but that’s a loser mentality. Why would you worry about a bronze medal game BEFORE playing in the semifinals? You play that semifinal to win, which means – if everything holds to form – you worry about Spain before you worry about Serbia.

I love how exhibitions mean nothing only when the U.S. is playing them. Everyone was saying how great Greece looked in exhibitions and how they were dominating up until the Serbia game. If the exhibitions are completely meaningless, then how do we know Greece is any good this summer? You can’t have it both ways.

P.S. – I hope Greece is proud of how they ran up that ridiculous 70+ point win over Canada in a “meaningless” exhibition game. Real classy.
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milaz
14 years ago
@Phil:
Let’s forget about history and exhibition games and watcht the tournament….. We can go back and forth all day… I’m sure if the US beat Canada by 70+ you’d be the first to boast about it…. Every team worries only about the next game, not about how they will win in a game after 2 weeks…. Exhibitions are a way to prepare a team that will only play together for a short period of time. They need more game together. They are meaningless as far as the actual tournament. not as a way to peek into the team’s preparation and readiness…. still, many teams show one thing in exhibitions and another in the “real” tournament. I think what you are saying – “looking at games from 2002 and 2004 is meaningless” – is even more out there…. Those are tournaments that are over and done with and the results stand.

In any case, the verdict – if you will – is that the US has a young team – good, athletic but young with depth at the 5 position. On the other hand, there are teams that have played together for a while, with lots of chemistry and lots of quality centers. Even experts like Charley Rosen are saying that the US will win gold only “if at least 10 players give peak performances against the other gold medal contenders”. In any case, I’m expecting to see some great basketball for 2 weeks and may the best team win. I much prefer knowing that the gold is up for grabs by at least 4 teams, than knowing the winner beforehand.
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milaz
14 years ago
with *no* depth at the 5 position
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Phil
14 years ago
The 2002 and 2004 games are COMPLETELY meaningless. Not only the players, but the coaches and even management for Team USA are different. IT IS NOT THE SAME PROGRAM.

Any USA fan who would be excited about beating CANADA by 70 points would be an idiot.

PS – Great showing by Greece right now … up by one on China in the fourth quarter …
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Phil
14 years ago
Greece holds off China … but unless Sofo and Fotsis are the team’s ENTIRE defense, they should be really, really worried about the awful defense today …
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Apollo
14 years ago
Phil you should be worried if you have to play Greece at the quarterfinals. REALLY worried.
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SW
14 years ago
Oh please….the US is the best team by far here. They are only getting better with each game.
Sure they could lose to Spain, Greece, Arg or Serbia but it would be a major upset. Even if it was Spain. The US would win 9 or 10 games against any of those teams.
Spain just lost to France for goodness sake!
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Phil
14 years ago
Why? Because of one game four years ago … in which Greece GAVE UP 95 POINTS? 2010 Team USA plays so much better team defense than the ’06 USA team did, there is really no comparison. Greece is not going to score 100 points on them like they did four years ago. Sorry, but Greece is going to have to play much better defense … by orders of magnitude … than it did against China to beat the US. Only team that could beat this Team USA with Team USA playing well is possibly Spain. Losing to any other team is going to require some serious breakdowns or ego-tripping by USA … and guess what, this team isn’t full of egos or megastars who need the ball in their hands … just super-talented players who play as a team.
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Lithuanian
14 years ago
I think it’s time for you to fix your predictions about Lithuania bro, so far you said we would lose every game and you were wrong every time. “No way Lithuania can beat Spain blah blah…. “, “OK, Lithuania managed to come back some how and beat Spain but there is no way they can keep that up and win against France….”. We are the Jedi of basketball. We lost our “friendly” matches to Spain twice by some 30 pts. Started with a 17 pt deficit against Canada to make it look like we barely won and started out with 18 pt deficit against Spain to make it look like we are gonna lose for the 3rd time, and when they lose their focus, we strike, kick ass and take names. It’s all a part of a grand strategy!! Go Lithuania!
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