There’s a distinctly European flavour to the early NBA MVP odds. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic are favourites. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t far behind. Even Victor Wembanyama features towards the top of the betting ranks.
It’s time for our first look of the season at NBA MVP betting. As is the nature of this site, the focus is on how Europeans fare in the rankings. That said, there is one non Euro that looks exceptionally good value right now.
Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic lead
In a surprise to roughly nobody, the top two Europeans in the early odds for NBA MVP are Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. Jokic is coming off winning his third MVP trophy in four seasons. When he didn’t win in 2023, he still had a strong case. The Denver Nuggets Serbian superstar promises to once again feature prominently in the race throughout the season.
Luka Doncic was in the second tier of NBA MVP contenders in the front half of last season. The back end however saw him surge impressively into consideration. Doncic winning an NBA MVP with the Dallas Mavericks feels like an inevitability. The question is when more than if at this stage.
Right now, it’s a dead heat between the duo. Both Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic are priced at 7/2 across the majority of markets. That should change before the regular season tips. The more probable one to take the edge and be outright favourite is Jokic. That said, it won’t be by much.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama feature
The Greek Freak last won MVP all the way back in 2020. That feels like a lifetime ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up NBA MVP calibre numbers for the Milwaukee Bucks. His, relatively, long wait for a third MVP award is good news for bettors. Giannis is priced all the way out at 7/1 on most betting markets. In truth, he should be a lot close to both Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic at this early stage.
The big surprise is how highly rated Victor Wembanyama is amongst bettors at this early stage. Entering only his sophomore season, Wemby is already comfortably in the top 10 in pre-season odds for NBA MVP. Most sportsbooks have him around 6th or 7th in their rankings.
The price will be tempting to many but caveat emptor. Victor Wembanyama is 22/1 on most markets. The longest price for him is 25/1. Both of those look like good value but there’s a big catch. With Wembanyama on a weak San Antonio Spurs team, he’ll be expected to deliver more than raw numbers. The Spurs must improve radically as a team for Wemby to feature as a true contender in the NBA MVP race.
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An unlikely source of value
The names towards the top of the NBA MVP odds make a lot of sense. There’s the aforementioned Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokoumpo. The others in the mix are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Joel Embiid.
One name on the outside that should arouse interest is Jayson Tatum. The Boston Celtics star has the perfect narrative for a NBA MVP season. Voters love a player with something to prove. Despite winning the NBA championship last summer, Tatum barely featured in the US Olympic team’s run to gold. That has the revenge season narrative ready made.
Yet, despite this, Jayson Tatum is available at 25/1 in NBA MVP betting. Unlike Victor Wembanyama, he doesn’t have to worry about a weak win-loss record holding him back. Tatum is poised to be the best player on potentially the best team in the NBA. He’ll be doing so with eyes on him. I would be shocked if his odds don’t shorten as the start of the season approaches. Now is the time to grab that value.
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