It’s the battle for bronze at the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dillon Brooks seek lead Canada to victory over the USA. Who will recover from their semi-final defeat to finish with a win?
Key details
Who: USA (5-2) vs Canad (5-2)
Where: Mall of Asia Arena, Manila
When: Sunday Septembner 10 at 16.30 Manila/09.30 London/04.30 New York
How they got here
USA opened the tournament with four straight wins over Jordan, New Zealand, Greece, and Montenegro. They then lost to Lithuania but bounced back to beat Italy in style. In the semi-final, they fell to an inspired Germany team.
Canada opened with three straight wins over France, Lebanon, and Latvia. They then lost to Brazil before recovering to beat Spain. This was followed by an impressive win over Slovenia. Their lack of experience on this stage showed in the semi-final loss to Serbia.
Last time out
An enormous comeback in the fourth quarter almost saved the USA. That said, their performances throughout the tournament have been questionable. The problems were obvious and never addressed.
Canada just lacked the knowledge to succeed against Serbia. They had played far smarter basketball than the USA throughout this tournament. It wasn’t enough however as they got schooled by Svetislav Pesic’s side.
Key battles
It’s really about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs everyone on the offensive end for Canada. He sets the tone and creates for everyone around him. The USA must contain him if it is to be competitive in this game.
On the other end, Dillon Brooks has been a defensive menace for Canada and the USA players will be familiar with him. They won’t be familiar with how well he has adapted to the FIBA style of play. That could be crucial.
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Need to know
The terms Canada Basketball and USA Basketball have two very different implications. With USA Basketball, it’s the Dream Team, the NBA, and, more recently, a question of commitment. With Canada Basketball, it used to be “who?”
Now that term means Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, hope, belief, and a sense of promise. Mentally, that really can’t be under stated in importance.
What the bookies think
The USA are big betting favourites with sportsbooks, at 1/3 across most markets. Canada look an extremely generous 23/10 as well. The point spread favours the USA by -7.5 points.
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What we think
This one is all about motivation. There’s no doubt the USA players will want to bounce back hard after their defeat to Germany. The question is will their playing the same inconsistent style that has plagued them throughout this tournament be enough.
The 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup feels like an important moment for Canada Basketball. They had their rough night. They learned the hard lesson. Now can they bounce back? This is already an historic tournament for them. Winning this would mean they match the best ever performance of their women by getting bronze.
The prediction
When I look at these rosters, I see two things. One has more talent in total. The other is more of a team. That alone wouldn’t be enough but look at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dillon Brooks. They want this, they need this. Canada to win.
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